Compreendendo o papel da mobilidade interprovincial humana na disseminação da COVID-19: um modelo metapopulacional estocástico com taxas de contacto dependentes do tempo
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14295/vetor.v35i1.18479Palavras-chave:
Pandemia de COVID-19, Mobilidade interprovincial, Modelo metapopulacional estocástico, Modelo de radiação, Taxas de contacto dependentes do tempoResumo
A modelação epidemiológica que incorpora a mobilidade interprovincial e as taxas de contacto variáveis no tempo é essencial para elucidar a dinâmica de transmissão da COVID-19. A migração de indivíduos entre províncias e as flutuações temporais nas taxas de contacto moldadas pelas directivas de distanciamento social são consideradas os factores cruciais que influenciam a propagação da doença. Para investigar estas variáveis, construímos um modelo metapopulacional estocástico composto por 11 subpopulações, cada uma delineada por um submodelo SEIAHRD compartimental, para articular a transmissão da COVID-19 no contexto de Moçambique. A mobilidade interprovincial foi quantificada utilizando uma matriz origem-destino derivada do modelo de radiação. A interação entre mobilidade humana e variabilidade nas taxas de contato foi avaliada ao testar três cenários distintos: modelo sem mobilidade; modelo com mobilidade e modelo com mobilidade e isolamento da Cidade de Maputo. O modelo que incorpora taxas de contato dependentes do tempo demonstrou desempenho superior em todos os cenários do modelo. Estes resultados sublinham a importância da mobilidade inter-regional na definição da dinâmica epidémica e sublinham o efeito das intervenções governamentais nas flutuações nas taxas de contacto. Esta investigação sublinha a necessidade de restrições estratégicas de mobilidade e medidas adaptativas nos futuros quadros de controlo epidémico para melhorar a eficácia da resposta e mitigar as repercussões sociais e de saúde.
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